A plurality, but not a majority, what happened?
At the recent Democratic Presidential debate, moderator Chuck Todd asked this question: “Should the person with the most delegates at the end of this primary season be the nominee, even if they are short of a majority?” All candidates, except Senator Sanders, wanted to ‘play by the rules,’ which means no one is nominated until they have a majority (>50%). With multiple candidates in the race, it is certainly possible that one might have a plurality, but not a majority, of the delegates. The Democratic party has several hundred super-delegates – these are party officials who are appointed, not elected through primaries. They can vote on the second ballot at the convention, the first ballot is limited to delegates selected through the primary elections. It is certainly possible that these super-delegates could swing the nomination to a candidate who did not win the most elected delegates. How might the voters react?
There are two similar occurrences in our history.
1824
The 1824 Presidential election, to succeed the popular James Monroe, included four candidates. John Quincy Adams, Secretary of State under Monroe and son of our second President, John Adams, ran from Massachusetts. At the time, the Secretary of State was considered a stepping stone to the Presidency. Presidents John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and James Monroe had first served as Secretary of State. William Crawford of Georgia was the second candidate. He was Secretary of the Treasury under Monroe and had served under President Madison also. Henry Clay, Senator from Kentucky, made the first of his three Presidential runs in 1824. And General Andrew Jackson, hero of the War of 1812, was the fourth candidate.
Andrew Jackson won the largest share of the popular and electoral vote, winning about 40% of each. Quincy Adams finished second with about 30% of the votes. Crawford was third and Clay fourth. The 12th Amendment to the Constitution defines the rules for electing a President: If no one wins a majority, the election goes to the House, considering only the top three candidates. Therefore, Clay was eliminated. Each state gets one vote, irrespective of its size.
Jackson had won 11 of the 24 states, not enough to win an absolute majority, which required 13 votes. The three states that supported Clay voted for Adams. And three Jackson states switched their votes from Jackson to Adams giving the Presidency to John Quincy Adams. Adams subsequently named Clay as his Secretary of State.
Critics called the nomination of Clay to Secretary of State a ‘corrupt bargain’, implying that Clay swung support to Adams in return for the cabinet position. Jackson and his supporters spent the next four years heavily criticizing President John Quincy Adams. Jackson and Adams had a re-match in 1828. Jackson won easily with over 55% of the popular vote and over 68% of the Electoral College.
1912
Teddy Roosevelt became President in 1901 following William McKinley’s assassination. He won re-election in 1904 and left office in 1908 after serving two terms. He endorsed William Taft, one of his cabinet members, in the 1908 election. Taft won easily. After leaving office, Roosevelt found himself in disagreement with some of Taft’s policies. He decided to challenge Taft for the 1912 Republican nomination and entered the Republican primaries. At that time, only thirteen states held primaries. Of those, Roosevelt won nine primary elections, including winning in Taft’s home state of Ohio. The remaining states selected convention delegates in local political meetings. On the strength of the party appointed-delegates, Taft reached a narrow majority at the convention despite having lost most of the primary elections.
Teddy Roosevelt and his followers refused to accept the result and formed a third party, the Progressive Party (informally known as the ‘Bull Moose’ party). In one of the strongest third-party showings in history, Roosevelt finished in second place, winning six states. Republican Taft finished last. The split between Roosevelt and Taft allowed Woodrow Wilson to win the election easily, despite only winning about 42% of the popular vote.
Conclusion
In these examples, denying the candidate who won the most votes, but not a majority, backfired. John Quincy Adam’s presidency was hampered by ongoing criticism of the alleged ‘corrupt bargain,’ and he lost the re-match against Andrew Jackson by a wide margin. Teddy Roosevelt ran as a third-party candidate, split the Republican vote, allowing Woodrow Wilson, the Democrat, to win. This year, the Democratic party will be in a tough position if none of their candidates wins over 50% of the delegates in the primaries.