UFO's, Murder Hornets, and Election Coattails — Parks, Presidents and Parks

2020 has certainly been an ‘interesting’ year. First, there have been reports, including video, of Unidentified Flying Objects (UFO’s). Then the country was invaded by murder hornets. And, finally, the the election included an unprecedented ‘reverse coattail’ effect.

Unidentified Flying Objects

Earlier this year, CNN reported that the Pentagon planned to launch a UFO investigation taskforce. The Pentagon released several videos documenting unexplained encounters, described as ‘unidentified aerial phenomena.’ Watch here and decide for yourself. I speculate that these were Martians trying to interfere in our elections. Or perhaps Venusians investigating the Earth and Climate Change. Or maybe the Mandalorian investigating the planet for Jedi.

Murder Hornets

Officially ‘Murder Hornets’ are ‘Asian Giant Hornets.’ They can grow as large as two inches long and decimate beehives. Earlier this year, an American beekeeper spotted them near his destroyed hives. Their sting can penetrate regular bee suits. Actually, I think it is unfair to call them murder hornets. Humans rarely die from their stings. Perhaps we should call them ‘Alleged Manslaughter Bees.’ The Department of Agriculture continues to monitor any sightings and has exterminated the few nests that have been located. There are unconfirmed reports that the COVID vaccine protects against Murder Hornet stings – another reason to take the vaccine.

Election Coattails

The coattail effect refers to a popular political party leader attracting votes for other candidates of the same party in an election. For example, the winning Presidential party frequently also wins seats in Congress; they are elected "on the president's coattails." But how often does this actually happen?

Coattail Effect in Presidential Elections

Counting this year, there have 31 Presidential elections since 1900. In 21 (67%) of those elections, the winning Presidential party picked up seats in the House. Sometimes the gain is small, but in 16 of those 21 elections, the winning party picked up more than five seats. Of the 10 elections where the losing party gained seats, six resulted in gains of over five seats. The majority of the time, the winning Presidential party will pick up seats, but there are exceptions.

There are three categories of Presidential Elections, as shown in the nearby table. Do Presidential coattails differ between these three categories?

Presidential Elections – Open Seat (no incumbent in the race)

Coattail Effect - Open Seat Presidential Elections

Of the 31 elections since 1900, ten were for an open seat where no incumbent was in the race. 2016 was the most recent example. Five had a small swing in Congressional seats, but the other five resulted in a swing of over 20 seats. In 1920, Republican Warren Harding won the Presidency in a landslide as Woodrow Wilson’s Presidency became quite unpopular after World War I. The Republicans picked up over 60 seats and a veto-proof two-thirds House Majority, the most recent time Republicans ever had that large of a majority. Republican Herbert Hoover won a landslide in 1928, picking up over 30 seats in the House. When Eisenhower won the Presidency in the 1952 landslide, Republicans picked up over 20 seats in the House. This was the last Republican majority in the House for over 40 years, until 1994. And in 2008, Obama’s victory also led to a Democratic pickup of more than 20 seats. The one exception to this pattern, 1960. John F. Kennedy won the closest Presidential election in history, but his Democratic Party lost about 20 seats.

Presidential Elections – Incumbent wins re-election

Coattail Effect - Incumbent Wins Re-Election

There have been 15 Presidential elections where the incumbent won re-election. In 10 of them, the winning Presidential party won more than 5 seats. Several were quite large. When Truman won his upset re-election victory in 1948, the Democratic Party picked up over 70 house seats! Teddy Roosevelt’s win in 1904 picked up over 40 house seats. One example of an incumbent winning re-election, but his party losing seats, was 1916. Woodrow Wilson narrowly won his re-election campaign.

Presidential Elections – Incumbent Loses Re-Election

In six Presidential elections since 1900, the incumbent lost. This usually occurs due to the incumbent’s unpopularity. In this case, you might expect the challenger’s party to also win Congressional seats. And this is generally true. The most significant example is Franklin Roosevelt (FDR) defeating Herbert Hoover’s 1932 second-term campaign. With the great depression at its peak, not only did FDR easily win the Presidency, but the Democratic Party picked up over 90 seats in the House. In 1980, Republican Ronald Reagan defeated the unpopular Jimmy Carter, with Republicans gaining over 30 house seats. And Woodrow Wilson’s Democratic Party picked up many seats when he defeated incumbent William Taft in 1908. The Republican vote was splintered between Taft and third-party candidate Teddy Roosevelt.

Regan Defeated Carter

FDR Defeated Hoover

In 1992 was an exception - Clinton defeated incumbent George Bush, but the Democrats lost nine seats in the House. One factor was the 1990 census, which shifted seats from Democratic regions to Republican regions.

Which brings us to this year’s election, 2020. Despite Democrat Biden defeating incumbent Republican Trump for the Presidency, Republicans picked up 15 seats. This is unprecedented – to defeat an incumbent President but lose that many seats in the house. Another unique 2020 event.

Conclusion

It’s a good thing 2020 is almost over. Perhaps there will be more UFOs in 2021. Or the murder hornets will return in force. But this we know, there will not be a Presidential Election in 2021!